The Recycle Bin

Let�s now turn our attention to where players on major league rosters were drafted in OOTPB 2006. I took a look at the Jacksonville Sharks (in my IOSBL league) to see where the major league 2035 roster players were selected in the draft. The Sharks were six games under .500 in 2035, so they weren�t the best team in the league.

There were four position players taken in the first round. Two second round, one third, one sixth, and one seventh round picks were on the starting roster. The substitute/utility players had one first round, one second, one fourth, one seventh, and one 12th round pick.

Next, I took a look at the starting rotation. There were three first round picks (numbers four, nine, and twelfth overall), one third round, and one fifth round pick in the rotation. The third round pick was actually the number two SP in the rotation, but the number five pick was the fifth starter.

How does this compare to OOTP 6.5? I examined the starting lineup of the 2017 Jacksonville Sharks, a playoff team, battling for first place in our AL East. There were four first round, two second round, one third round, and one fifth round pick in the Sharks starting lineup. One player was drafted in the original IOSBL draft. The starting rotation consisted of a second round, third round, fourth round, and a ninth round pick. Again, another SP was selected in the original IOSBL draft, so not included in the numbers.

These results are consistent with our first test. There doesn�t seem to be a big difference between OOTP 6.5 and OOTPB 2006 for position players. First and second round players do well. Players selected in lower rounds can have productive careers in OOTP 6.5, and they may also do well in OOTPB 2006.

Pitching is a different story. The third round pick in 2017 is one of the best pitchers in the AL, and the ninth round pick (my number two SP) is very good as well. So if we want to get the best bang for the buck patch-wise, Sports Interactive needs to look at the pitching development algorithms. They are not consistent with OOTP 6.5 and success seems too predictable for higher level prospects.

Well-done. I have not see the Braves play this bad in a long, long time. After a hell of a run, you have to expect that all good things come to an end sooner or later. I know it sounds silly for me to complain about the Braves not being a “big market” team, but regardless of all the TV contracts, the current Braves management will not put money back into the team.

The Braves have many problems, but not putting money into a quality bullpen was the ultimate downfall of this year’s Braves. I know there is over a half season to play, and I love Bobby Cox, but after going 3-15 over the last few weeks, this year’s team is toast.

In what was a major oops, I forgot that today is LeMans day! What did you expect with a birthday party for my 4-year old, World Cup, the Dawgs in the CWS, and a crazy work schedule. Not to mention that my Orlando Dolphins of the JOBL ran away with their division, which was good for my first ever division title in an online league! I cannot give myself too much credit; I took over a pretty decent team last year.

So back to LeMans. I doubt I will get to watch much today, there is just too much going on, and I am going to be scheming hard to watch this thing while hosting Nathan’s birthday party. Like I said, this one pretty much slipped up on me, so I have no idea who I have to pull for with American interests. I am damn curious to see how the diesel powered Audi perform.

Today’s game against Italy is a rare chance for US soccer to gain a degree of respectability. I am not sure if anyone realistically expected Team USA to down the Czech Republic, but I doubt that many expected total embarrassment. I just have to wonder which team will show up today? The one that played a lazy endeavor against a clearly superior team, or will we get the team that is hungry for respect?

There has been a lot of talk about changing up the lineup today, but it will all be for naught if we do not figure out some basic principles of defense (clear to the sidelines folks!). I am not going to make any suggestions here because I have no idea how to fix this problem. The guys just need to figure out how to hold it together, close down any attacks, and play some sound defense. I really think steady play is all that is needed because Keller is a fine keeper if given just a bit of support.

As for the midfield, at a minimum Donovan needs to go back to the midfield and Beasley should be a very late sub to help stretch the field. Everyone seems to like O’Brien; I can jump on the bandwagon if needed, but Reyna will need to play like he is super pissed about the midfield’s poor performance last Monday.

Of course you have to score to win, and if no one can serve McBride, or whoever is playing to support McBride, I do not think we will score. This is really a huge problem for the US; no dominant strikers. I figured the US was going to play a classic defensive style of ball control, but after going down in the first five minutes, it was pretty much over. All signs point towards Eddie Johnson playing opposite McBride. I am going to keep my fingers crossed that we can at least get some quality opportunities and hope for the best.

The two things we do know are that we have to win or we go home, and what an utter disappointment (dare I say failure) that would be for US soccer. We also know that Arena is going to shake up the line up. Like I said, steady defense, solid midfield support, and a few quality opportunities for our boys will result in a 2-1 upset.

Go USA!

Before we look at an individual team�s draft picks, I thought that a comparison with OOTP 6.5 was in order. My previous post established that the top performers were generally in the first and second round in OOTPB 2006. It�s a very different story in OOTP 6.5.

I looked at our 2015 season OOTP 6.5 results, and found small differences in the position player performance. I only examined average this time and six were drafted in the first round, two in the second, one in the fourth, and one ninth round pick (who actually led the AL in average). All of the first round picks were below the top ten, but overall, not a big difference between the two games. The ninth round pick performance is possible in OOTP 6.5, but is it in OOTPB 2006? The jury is still out.

Pitching is a whole different game in OOTP 6.5. Only three pitchers drafted in the first round were on the ERA leader boards. Two third, one fourth, one eighth, and two tenth round picks made up the ERA leader board. This is pretty consistent with my woeful drafting performance for starting pitcher prospects in OOTP 6.5. They hardly ever pan out for me. One pitcher was in the original IOSBL league draft, so I didn�t count him in these numbers.

It appears on the surface that pitching development and performance are very different in OOTP 6.5. Lower round picks seem to have a chance of excelling in OOTP 6.5. Not sure this is the case in OOTPB 2006.

A criticism leveled at OOTPB 2006 is that lower-level talent does not do well in the big leagues. In fact, they do not make the major leagues at all. I decided to do a multi-dimensional look at this issue. First, let�s consider what round the best players are being drafted.

I looked at the year 2035�s top leaders in average, HRs, ERA and strikeouts. These are all from my 18-year sim with default modifiers. This sim had no scouts turned on, so I am running yet another 18-season sim with scouts on (sigh), but I still think there are some interesting results.

Of the top ten hitters for average in both leagues, seven were drafted in the first round, two were drafted in the second round, and one was an undrafted player signed by a team. Only two of the first round players were drafted in the top ten (sixth and ninth), with the rest in the middle to lower portion of the draft. Second round picks faired a little better for HR hitters. Six first round picks and 4 second round picks were on the leader boards for both leagues.

Pitching was dominated by top five picks. Every pitcher on the ERA leader board was drafted in the first round, with the lowest being the number six pick in the draft. The lowest. There were three number one overall, one number two, and two number three overall picks leading the leagues in ERA. For those pitchers not on the ERA leader board (there were four), only one was a first round pick on the strikeouts leader board. The only third and fourth round picks on any of the leader boards I looked at were leading their leagues in strikeouts.

So what do we learn from this first cut? First round picks are important for both hitters and pitchers, but the higher drafted first round pitchers excel in OOTPB 2006. My OOTP 6.5 career is filled with busted high first round pitcher draft picks, so this seems a bit off in OOTPB 2006. At least along this dimension it does. Middle first round and high second round position players do very well in OOTPB 2006.

I will next take a look at the Jacksonville Shark�s draft choices to see if these trends hold for an individual team. In other words, do players picked in the lower rounds ever contribute and/or excel at the big league level in OOTPB 2006?

Here�s some more of our sub-par OOTPB 2006 analysis. As promised, I did another overnight 18-season sim with all modifiers set to their 1.000 defaults. The AL seems to be a bit skewed toward better hitting and worse pitching when the modifiers are left alone. This could be a DH effect, but I�m not certain yet that it is.

The AL started with a low .250 league average in 2017 and finished with a .285 average in 2035. The average stayed below .260 from 2017-2023, which is consistent with previous results in OOTP 6.5. The span 2024-2030 saw the AL average go from a low of .260, to a .276 high, which is consistent with MLB averages. From 2031 forward, the league average went from .282 to .286, with three seasons at the .285 level.

The NL was a very different story. Teams hit below .260 in the NL from 2017 until 2026. A low of .238 was posted in 2017, and the NL didn�t break .250 until 2022. Interestingly, there was a jump from .259 in 2026 to .270 in 2027, and the league maintained roughly a .270 average for the remainder of the sim.

The pitching results pretty much mirror the batting results � AL was much higher than NL league ERA for any given year. OOTPB 2006 seems to do a better job with non-DH sub-leagues than DH sub-leagues maintaining that close to .275 MLB average, or at least this is the case for the IOSBL (my league). It could be that the results are within a standard deviation or some margin of error that Markus had programmed into the game.

The unmodified test sim produced a 71 HR hitter post-OOTP 6.5. The leader boards look pretty good, with two players hitting .371 at the top in 2034. ERAs are a bit high, with the best being 2.47, and the next lowest at 3.22 in 2034. The hitting leaders were back to .348 as a high on the boards in 2035, although pitching was terrible. The fifth best pitcher ERA on the leader board was 4.12 in the AL.

A couple of caveats. These are all computer AI run teams. I think human managers will produce slightly different league total results. IOSBL owners seem to value pitching quite a bit and we�ve been described as a pitcher�s league. So I expect things to be OK in general. Those of you playing solo leagues may want to wait and see what the new AI brings to the table once the patches are released.

Next, I will take a look at what the AI did and player progression over the 18-year sim�

Although we may not be the best place to visit to find out information about OOTPB 2006 (according to the great Bill Harris at Dubious Quality), we try our best here at the Recycle Bin. It took me two days, but I finally finished an 18-season sim of an imported OOTP 6.5 league. My one fear is that OOTPB 2006 won’t produce the same results as OOTP 6.5 for those of us running online leagues. And I must say that I am left scratching my head a bit.

During my initial run, I complained about the league averages being off and that there were odd results as far as individual leaders (hits, HRs, etc.) until I adjusted the league totals modifiers. So I followed my new plan of using my adjustments and then setting them back to 1.000 (the Major League equivalent modifier setting) and see what happens.

It turns out that the game was already doing a good job replicating OOTP 6.5�s league totals. What do I mean? I took a look at our league�s Catobase history and noticed that league batting averages ranged between .255 – .266 (for the AL) and ERA from 3.94-4.37 over an 11-season time period in OOTP 6.5. This is absolutely consistent with the un-modified (1.000) results that I was getting when I initially imported my league in the un-patched version of the game.

The big difference between the results is found on the leader boards. There seems to be some sort of smoothing effect going on in OOTPB 2006. By this, I mean that the upper ends of the leader boards are different. Although the league totals were the same, the top players were not performing the same. In OOTP 6.5, I had players hitting 50+ HRs within a league .254 average. In OOTPB 2006, players were struggling to get to 45 Hrs, but the league averages were the same as OOTP 6.5.

In my new sim, the league averages ranged from .264-.284 (AL) and .254-.279 (NL) during 18-seasons in OOTPB 2006. Even with this much higher average (compared to OOTP 6.5), the HR record was 62 � three more than the 59 HR pervious record in the older version.

So I now have an interesting problem. Do I want to keep the modifiers in place and live with this smoothing out effect? In other words, in OOTPB 2006, the high numbers won�t be as high, but the middle range folks should perform better than in OOTP 6.5. Or do I use the modifiers, and live with the inflated league averages and ERA in order to get similar leader board performance?

Hate to say it, but I will have to do another 18-season test using no modifiers. Sigh�.

This week has been fairly crazy; not much time for gaming or blogging. Touching on sports; boo-hiss, the US sucked on Monday. I teach my kids to clear to the sidelines. How hard is that? The Dawgs somehow escaped from the clutches of the mighty chickens from USC (that is the University of South Carolina around these parts).

Team USA’s chances the rest of the way? Not so good. A couple of weeks ago I told a couple of guys at work that I did not think we would escape group play, but I certainly thought we would look better in the process of going down. I am a homer and all, but man we looked bad. I was really hopeful that we would advance out of group play, but certainly not expecting that we would advance. After Monday.? I guess we will get ’em in another four years.

You have to like GA’s chances going into the CWS. They are on a major roll, playing great when their backs are against that wall thing everyone talks about. I do not like opening against Rice, but I think the Dawgs are going to make a pretty good showing.

I am traveling to the UK next week, and the client I am visiting is fairly formal. Time to get a new suit. I decided I would try Men’s Warehouse. Not such a good idea. First off, the guy wants to measure me, but I told him I already know my size. He insisted on a 39; I told him he was nuts. Of course I try on a 39 and it is far too short and tight. After we get a proper fitting for a jacket I am told about the great “2 suits for $500 deal.” “No thanks. I do not want to spend $500 today. I just want this suit.” Hardheaded SOB. Nope, that will not do. The dude proceeds to tell me that “Some people are afraid to mix and match jackets with their suits. I should look at some of these jackets.” Blah, blah, blah. Whatever. WTF is wrong with these people? I just want the suit.

Would it end there? Nope. I get fitted for my pants, but the guy insists on a 36-inch waist. Not going to work I tell him, but does the little jerk listen? Nope. OK, so I try on the pants, and guess what? Not such a good fit. So they get all the marks down and adjustments in hand. After I come out of the dressing room, just by chance they have several jackets that “would look really good with your pants.” So I tell the guy that I only want this suit. He insists that I try on some of these jackets. I politely tell him “no thanks.” He tells me again about the great “2 for $500 deal” and pretty much looks at me like a stupid ass jerk for not taking the plunge on the sale.

On the way to pay for my suit, there is one more used car effort – a whole table lined with shirts, ties, socks, etc. I tell the guy in a not so nice manner that I only want the suit. He tells me that “I may have some ideas that you did not think about before.” What a f’ing looser. I know it is not sales guy’s fault (they have to coach them for this kind of stuff), but I cannot stand this type of crap.

The final straw in this story (or I would not be warning others right now) is that I later noticed that I was charged $10 to alter the waist of my pants. WTF? I told the guy up front that he should start with a smaller size. It is so hard to get good help these days, and I can honestly say that I will not be a regular in the local Men’s Warehouse. Their approach sucks.

I must say that I’m a bit frustrated seeing people slamming OOTPB 2006 in the OOTP forums when (a) never seen them post before and/or (b) they just joined the OOTP community. But I think the following post by “mhs635” in response sums up my opinion:

“The mistake you [Marc Duffy] made was underestimating the sense of entitlement a select few would get from preordering. They not only recieved a discount but felt they should be handed over the reigns to your entire company, move into your house, become you pet’s favorite person and be allowed to always drink the last can of soda or beer in your fridge.

Then the next mistake was not seeing that there were a few people out there who expected the game to be exactly the same as the past 7 versions but with prettier pictures. Despite the fact that they have known for 2 years now that this version was going to be a completely new model.

Then you underestimated the amount of people who because of one minor little problem or because something they liked 3 years ago doesn’t work exactly the same way would throw out the laughable “this game is unplayable” comment.

I applaud your patience Mark”

If you cannot see the brilliance in OOTPB 2006, then we just aren’t fans of the same types of games. There are problems that are being addressed as I type this, but good grief. Thank goodness that the majority of people who purchased the game are happily discovering every cool nugget within OOTPB 2006. And waiting for the next patch…

I am going to (again) run a 12-year sim today using the new patch. However, I have some serious questions about online league game play that commissioners everywhere need to consider. Many of the solo game issues reported in various forums don’t impact the online community very much since humans do the trading, waivers, etc. So our list of things that need fixing is probably not too long at this point. But here are my concerns:

(1) How do we handle “dead” time? One big difference between OOTP 6.5 and the current version is that when a season ended, the league fast forwarded to the next big event (draft, free agency, etc.). OOTPB 2006 is more real-time, thus there is the potential for dead time in-between seasons. We will have to come up with sim strategies that allow us to go through pre-season and not mess-up game mechanics.

(2) How do we handle league file compression? I think the days of using the inefficient zip compression algorithm may be coming to a close with OOTPB 2006. The files are too big and there are other options (rar, ace, uha) that might do a better job. This will require owners to adjust their gaming habits developed over many years and use other programs than winzip and the like.

(3) What reports do we really need to upload? There’s been some work done by the online community to figure this out, but this still remains a big issue for us. The days are over when 200 MB server space could handle whatever OOTP could dish out.

(4) Scouts? Coaches? Most online leagues do not use coaches or scouts with OOTP 6.5. This primarily had to do with the html reports showing the real ratings (as opposed to the “scouted” ratings). With OOTPB 2006, scouts are probably a necessity. But how will leagues handle making a bad situation worse for struggling teams who can’t afford the higher priced scouts? Will leagues that use salary caps have to adjust the total amount of the cap to account for this new financial drain? I don’t think we need coaches as much as we need scouts, but what is the case for including coaches in online leagues?

These are the four questions I need to resolve before seriously beginning to move my league to the newest version.

I was pointed to a thread over at Front Office Football Central.com that is 21 pages long and filled with some of the most idiotic posts I’ve read in a long time. Nothing like taking legitimate complaints about a product and turning them into an unseemly mess. There is one thing I would like to point out about a couple of the posters in that thread. Some of them spend a lot of time helping Shaun Sullivan with his PureSim line. So I would take their colorful complaints with a big old grain of salt.

However, as I said, there are some legitimate concerns. The waiver/trade/extension AI in OOTPB 2006 seems busted at this point. You can read all 21 pages of the reactionary garbage on that forum, but that is what it boils down to.

Now, let me say something about the OOTPB 2006 beta team. All of the beta team members that chatted with me during the testing process wanted the release delayed. All of them. But you are witnessing the thankless job beta testing is both in the FOFC.com and OOTP forums. These testers pointed out many flaws, but the game was released anyhow. Then you get idiots like “lynchjm24” in the FOFC.com boards assuming that these very dedicated and selfless baseball fans are dolts.

So who is to blame for the current state of OOTPB 2006? Sports Interactive and Markus. Period. Please stop bashing the testers.

Now, to their credit, SI is trying to fix the game and is assembling a new crew to help them with the process. Hopefully this new team will help fix the waiver/trade/extension AI and can improve the intentional walk problems. And get some people on the team who play in online leagues so they can help fix the draconian file system and make it more online league friendly.

But repeat after me – SI and Markus are responsible for the current state of their game. Nobody else.

Ok, here is an example of what happens when you add a major online function to a game toward the end of the development process. You get the mess that is OOTPB 2006. A big thanks to “Stu” and some other online community members for figuring out what needs to be uploaded or not from the league folders.

But this is asinine folks.

I will spend more time deleting individual folders because this game was not developed with online leagues in mind, despite the huge following out there that participates in OOTPB online leagues. All you have to do is play five minutes of PureSim’s seamless online mode to understand just how easy it could be to run an online league.

From the huge league folders to the development team’s inability to identify what needs to be uploaded for online leagues (and included in league files), this is inexcusable. A large portion of folks who play Out of the Park Baseball do so online. Many, like me, ONLY play OOTP online. It really infuriates me that neither Markus nor Mark, nor anybody from SI could answer the simple question – what files are necessary for online league play?

And the reaction – wow, thanks for the info we’ll include it in the game guide- further highlights the callous afterthought the online community seems to be experiencing at this point. Since 2003, 32 owners in my league have loyally purchased every version of OOTPB. Most of us have been loyal fans since the beginning.

So can SI spend more than five minutes on the online portion over the next few weeks? Can we figure out a better way to store the files in the game so that running a league doesn’t become a WIndows Explorer deletion exercise?

Simply asinine.

Georgia rebounded from a loss to Florida State last Saturday night, by winning three games in a row to earn the right to host South Carolina in the NCAA Super Regionals.

UGA has been playing excellent ball of late, despite almost throwing it all away with their 6-4 loss to Florida State. UGA had to take the loser bracket route by winning two games on Sunday, followed by tonight’s 3-2 victory over Florida State. Tonight’s game was an excellent example of why this year’s team is so damn compelling – a timely home run, capitalizing on a Florida State miscue, and some great pitching all contributed to the victory. Hopefully Georgia can keep it going against those dreaded ‘cocks from SC.

Go DAWGS!

I noticed that the league average and ERA increased by a lot over the 12-year sim I ran earlier. Discussing these results with one of the beta testers revealed my problem – the player creation modifiers remained untouched during my simulation (all 1.000s). It appears that if you change the hits, etc. modifiers without adjusting the player creation modifiers, the game compensates by creating players that will produce higher results in accordance with your new settings.

So, if you make HRs 1.080, somehow the game creates players that will get you to this 1.080 number. The result is that players start producing at higher and higher levels of performance over the seasons.

My new strategy (which I will try after the patch is released) is to apply the modifiers and then slowly reduce them to 1.000 over the seasons to see if the results remain more constant over the seasons. Years 1 and 2 produce good results, but inflation kicks in from Year 3 – 12. Hopefully this gradual reduction back to 1.000 will keep results more consistent.

I was told the game tries to keep the league average at .275 for modern day numbers, so my adjustment is actually increasing what OOTPB 2006 will try to achieve for league averages. On the one hand, my adjustment helps during the first couple of sims normalize the results of my imported league to that .275. Problem is that eventually, player creation, etc. adjusts the league average to the 6% higher (1.060) level and well beyond a league .275 average.