At the beginning of the year, if you would have asked me if I would be happy with a nine win season, I would have said heck yes. Funny how things change …
Atlanta is now sitting at 9-5, good for their first winning season since 2004. And oh by the way, they have never had back-to-back winning seasons, which is pretty incredulous if you stop for a minute to think about what that really means. So suffering Falcons fans are use to misery. It is part of our calling cards. We expect the worse. But a winning season? No one could have predicted such a great year. Playoffs? No way Bob, but here are our Falcons, sitting smack in the middle of the playoff hunt.
The only probably is that Atlanta is on the outside looking in at the playoffs, which brings me full circle. Am I happy with a nine win season? What about a ten or eleven win season? Could the Falcons possibly win eleven games and not make the playoffs? The sad reality is that the Falcons need to win out, but they will still need a ton of help to make a post season appearance.
Trying to understand all the scenarios and tie-breakers is enough to make your head swim, but to make it simple, the Falcons need to win out against the Vikings and Rams, and hope (no, pray) for Tampa or Dallas to cough up a loss. Lurking in the mist are the resurgent Eagles, and thanks to a piss poor call, they own a tie-breaker over the Falcons. Never mind that the Falcons may not have beaten the Eagles, but that muffed punt non-fumble call is now part of revisionist history.
Atlanta’s probability of going 2-0: 75%.
I think the Falcons should be able to win on the road at Minnesota, while the last game of the season against St. Louis is at home, and should be a freebie.
Tampa Bay’s probability of going 2-0: 90%.
Not good news for Falcons fans looking for the Buccaneers to slide. Tampa Bay’s last two games are at home against the Chargers and Raiders. The Chargers are still in the playoff hunt (at least mathematically), but they are having a disappointing year. The Raiders? Well, they suck.
Dallas’ probability of going 2-0: 65%.
Looking for Dallas to slip out of the playoff picture is more promising, but they seem to be on a roll. They finish up the year at home against a tough Baltimore team, and on the road against Philadelphia. If Philadelphia is still in the hunt, you have to like their chances, but that scenario may further complicate Atlanta’s playoff hopes.
Never tell me the odds …
