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SEC Predictions (Interlude)

No SEC action today, so a quick moment of reflection on this SEC Bowl season.

Yesterday was not a good day for my picks; losses included South Carolina and Arkansas, both of which I said I should not pick. Oh well, live and learn. My sole winner was Ole Miss.

The only pick I have left is for all the marbles. Alabama is the one SEC team that I really do not want to win. Well, actually I did not want Arkansas (their coach is a f’ing wanker), South Carolina (cannot stand the fighting chickens), Florida (ugh!), Tennessee, or Auburn to win, but I digress. I am of the school that you pull for the conference, not the actual teams. A healthy SEC makes Georgia look better; at least in my own little world.

Of course none of this matters for a couple of reasons. First, with the BCS all the other teams and games are relegated to second class citizens. Except for maybe the Rose Bowl; elitists never conform. Second, the Mountain West Conference has kicked the shit out of all takers, winning this year’s Bowl Challenge Cup, with one more game to plan. Then again, it is all comes down to Texas/Alabama, so no one really cares about the MWC’s impressive record.

Regular Season Record: 46-41
SEC Championship: 0-1
SEC Bowl Record: 4-5
Final Record: 50-47
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SEC Bowl Record: 5-4 *Actual, not my predictions

SEC Predictions (Round 5 – When will Bowl season end?)

Remember when yesterday, New Year’s Day, was the day for all the major Bowl games? This stringing everything along for an extra week for the sake of TV ratings rather sucks.

Yesterday I went 2-1 against the spread. I knew I should not have picked Auburn to cover; while the Tigers won they almost threw away the Outback Bowl multiple times, finally defeating Northwestern 38-35. WTF happened to LSU? A sloppy Capital One Bowl field neutralized LSU’s superior speed, and thus the SEC’s other Tigers fell to the Nittany Lions 19-17. Lucky I took the points and those 2.5 LSU received from Penn St. put me over the hump. Finally, the Florida Gators were giving up 12.5, but they easily whipped the Cincinnati Bearcats 51-24 last night in the Sugar Bowl.

Papajohns.com Bowl: South Carolina vs. UConn
This one is almost unwatchable. Two run of the mill teams in their respective conferences. The fighting chickens are giving up 4, and while I should not give away that many points, South Carolina is the pick.

Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma St. vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss should represent the SEC well today. Both teams are entering today’s match up after losing out to their end of year rivals, but I expect Ole Miss to bounce back and cover the 3 they are laying to the Cowboys.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. East Carolina
The Pirates come into this game on a roll, winning their last four games, while the Razorbacks lost a heart-breaker in OT to LSU. With that, Conference USA gets no respect in this one; Arkansas is giving up 7.5, which to me seems like too damn much, but I have yet to pick against the SEC this Bowl season, so why start now? The hogs cover the 7.5 in a high scoring shootout.

Regular Season Record: 46-41
SEC Championship: 0-1
SEC Bowl Record: 3-3
Final Record: 49-45
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SEC Bowl Record: 3-3 *Actual, not my predictions

SEC Predictions (Round 4 – New Year’s Day Bowls)

Ouch. I was pretty far off on the Chicken Way (as my two year-old calls it) game; I am not going to concede that Va. Tech is all that … nothing like the third best ACC team kicking a mediocre SEC team in the mouth. How is that for being ungracious?

Outback Bowl: Northwestern vs. Auburn
The Tigers are giving up 8 to the purple cats, who just happen to carry in a three game winning streak including wins over (at the time) #4 Iowa and #16 Wisconsin. Auburn is bringing a two game winless streak into the Outback, ending their season with losses at Georgia and to #2 Alabama. No shame in that, but looking deeper, the Tigers have lost five of seven. Auburn is still favored by 8? Something smells with this one. Does the Big 10 really such that bad? This is against my better judgment (the SEC has really been flat this Bowl season); Auburn to cover the 8.

Capital One Bowl: 13 Penn St. vs. 12 LSU
How can the Happy Valley bunch be favored by 2.5 over the Tigers from Death Valley? Penn St. is vastly over rated, playing in a weak Big 10 and against subpar competition. I am taking LSU and the points; easy.

Sugar Bowl: 3 Cincinnati vs. 5 Florida
Gators are 12.5 point favorites in a game that at one point looked pretty promising. That was before all the drama with the coaches. There is no doubt that the Bearcats have had a nice season, but it will come to a crashing conclusion tonight in New Orleans. Can the mighty Gators cover? I have missed all year when I have picked them to cover significant points, so this is another “against my better judgment” pick, but Tebow goes out a big time winner. Gators by 14+ points.

Regular Season Record: 46-41
SEC Championship: 0-1
SEC Bowl Record: 1-2
Final Record: 47-44
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SEC Bowl Record: 1-2 *Actual, not my predictions

SEC Predictions (Bowl Games – Round 3)

It is fitting that the all powerful SEC wraps up the last Bowl game of the 2009 season. Tonight’s Chick-Fil-A Bowl (AKA the old Peach Bowl) features another ACC vs. SEC matchup; the second one of post season play. #12 Virginia Tech (9-3) vs. Tennessee (7-5), with the Hokies (WTF is a hokie?) favored by 6 points.

I look at this line as a dare – the folks that control the lines cannot seriously think that one of the better ACC teams is actually almost a TD favorite over a middle of the road (yet up and coming) Volunteers. Think of it this way. On the last weekend of regular season play, two mediocre SEC teams (Georgia and South Carolina) up ended the top ACC Coastal and Atlantic teams.

No way Va. Tech covers (I am taking Tennessee and the points) and I seriously doubt that the Hokies have the wherewithal to actually win outright.

Regular Season Record: 46-41
SEC Championship: 0-1
SEC Bowl Record: 1-1
Final Record: 47-43
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SEC Bowl Record: 1-1 *Actual, not my predictions

Of resolutions and things …

I don’t know … it just sort of seems fitting …

Patricia “Peppermint Patty” Reichardt: Have you made any New Years resolutions, Chuck?
Charlie Brown: Yes. You know how I always dread the whole year? Now I’m only going to dread one day at a time. [Happy New Year, Charlie Brown! (1986)]

Almost 2010! I am not one to make resolutions, but I have already started my running program (again) in earnest a week or so ago. Need to be a more prodigious saver. Will also be committed to drinking better beer, which puts a damper on the last bit about saving money; good beer is expensive!

Falcons Pro Bowl-less

Apparently none of the Falcons were worthy of a roster spot for this year’s Pro Bowl. For the most part I could care less about the game, but as a Falcons fan, there is the matter of pride. I know the team has fallen from last year surprise turn around, but that has more to do with injuries than anything else.

Pat Yasinskas of the NFC South Blog at ESPN thinks that Tony Gonzalez was hosed,

Got robbed: Tony Gonzalez, tight end, Falcons. The absence of Gonzalez is a crime. This guy is the best tight end ever and he still is playing at a high level. He did everything the Falcons thought he would when they traded for him and instantly became quarterback Matt Ryan’s favorite target. Gonzalez won the fan voting at his position, so the blame here falls to the coaches and players. I’m not sure if this one comes down to jealousy, overexposure over a long period or a somewhat disappointing season by Atlanta. But the Falcons still have a shot at a winning season. Teams that go 8-8 or 9-7 should have at least one Pro Bowl representative. The Falcons, somehow, didn’t get any. You also could make a case for linebackers Curtis Lofton and Mike Peterson and receiver Roddy White. But Gonzalez should have been a slam-dunk. This one turned into an air ball.

I tend to agree. No doubt that Vernon Davis deserves to be the starter, but how does Jason Witten make it over Tony G?

Now Drinking

When it is cold outside, I turn to stouts. What better beverage to pass a cold winter’s day? First up is Yuengling Original Black & Tan, which is a nice “every day” type of cold weather beer. Nothing special mind you, but a nice dark blend with plenty of hints of deep malts and chocolate. Technically this one may be a porter (so says the bottle), but most sites list it as a stout; either way works fine for me. At $10.99 for a 12 pack, this Yuengling makes an easy way to pass the day.

Next up is the main feature, Bell’s Kalamazoo Stout, which is completely delicious. Besides, how can you not like something with Kalamazoo in the name? The label says “stout brewed with brewers licorice” – featuring a hearty serving of dark roasted coffee and chocolate malts flavors. Very rich, and dare I say a full body stout. Certainly to be enjoyed slowly, not rushed.

SEC vs. Big 12?

I admit that I am a card carrying SEC bigot – all other conferences are second rate at best. This ajc.com blogger thinks that the Aggies performance against the Bulldogs is a sign that that SEC is superior (top to bottom) over the Big 12.

“Aggies QB Jerrod Johnson finished 29-for-58 for 362 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Dogs, but hardly looked like the player who attracted so much attention for his showing against Texas.

What was the difference? Part of it might have been that his performance against the Longhorns was juiced by it being a rivalry game. But it’s hard not to conclude that a bigger factor was that he wasn’t going up against a Big 12 defense. Georgia’s defensive front harried Johnson all night long and while he made some nice plays, he also looked rattled on more than one occasion and made some bad decisions. Johnson only had six picks all season before this game, but Georgia snagged two and could have had three more.”

It is hard for me not to concur, at least to some degree, but I also have a hard time trying to put up a mediocre UGA team against a 6-6 Texas A&M team as a comparison of conferences. I am not sure the Cotton Bowl (Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma St) is all that much better as a barometer. I am also far from convinced that the Tide will roll over the Longhorns.

Georgia upends Texas A&M 44-20 to claim the 2009 Independence Bowl

At times it was not pretty, and the game certainly did not play out how I expected, but a win is a win. Besides, when was the last time the Bulldogs won with such an inspired special teams performance? You could say that A&M imploded, but I like to think that the difference came done to coaching.

If you look at the statistics, it is clear that Texas A&M had a great offensive performance, but Georgia’s defense managed to get some key third down stops. Of course there was the special teams play and in a rare occurrence this year, Georgia actually won the turn over battle.

According to ESPN, next up is finding a defensive coordinator:

“What it means: Georgia (8-5) can go into the offseason feeling better about itself after knocking off Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale and winning its fourth straight bowl game. It’s not what anybody in Athens wanted or expected, but the Bulldogs showed their pride as a program by not completely unraveling after that bitter home loss to Kentucky back on Nov. 21. The next step is for Mark Richt to settle on his defensive coordinator. It’s obviously a huge hire for Richt and a huge hire for the program.”

That’s all well and good, but the big question for the program is going to be the next QB. I still think it is unfortunate that this team did not get some of the younger QBs some playing time; nothing beats real experience on the field. I can appreciate that Coach Richt did not want to burn a Red Shirt (or two), but they don’t do you any good if one of the QBs turns out to be a stud and leaves after two years.

[Edit: Oops … how embarrassing! Not only did I give A&M 3 extra points, but I short changed UGA a point. Score in title corrected.]

SEC Predictions
There are no SEC teams in action until New Year’s Eve; next installment forthcoming.

Regular Season Record: 46-41
SEC Championship: 0-1
SEC Bowl Record: 1-1
Final Record: 47-43
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SEC Bowl Record: 1-1 *Actual, not my predictions

Indianapolis 500 Legends DS

My brother wanted to get Nathan, my seven year old son, a DS game for Christmas; something bargain bin’ish in the $15 and under price range. Not because he is cheap mind you, but because the boys already had a haul worthy of Fort Knox. I picked out Indianapolis 500 Legends (Indy 500) because it looked interesting and because my middle kid likes Indy racing. Of course this is a “legends” game, so he does not recognize any of the drivers, but that is only a minor quibble for a seven year old getting a new game for Christmas!

Indy 500 has received really poor reviews; it has a metacritic score of 51 (based on 8 reviews). Nathan does not read the reviews, so he has no preconceived notions about the game. To him it is fun, but a little on the difficult side.

I gave Indy 500 a go last night and earlier this afternoon, and I am actually digging it. This is the type of game that I thrive on – a racing game that has limited appeal to all but the most diehard of racing fans. My hands were not made for a DS; after several races and missions, my thumb is score from holding down the “A” button (gas), and my hands feel cramped, which is a small price to pay for a couple of hours of fun.

I have only played a couple of 10 lap races, and worked my way past the first set of 1961 missions, which unlock A.J. Foyt, but I enjoyed the game enough to plan to spend some more time with it later this week. I am not sure if that is a testament to Indy 500, or more of a sign of my current gaming funk, which I suspect has been brought on in my dotage.

I am not sure if Indy 500 will have any sort of lasting appeal since it only includes a single track (Indy), but I think Indy 500 should provide a few hours of fun working my way through the various missions.

Enter Kroy Biermann

I mentioned this yesterday; at the game a lot of us went nuts seeing Biermann on the last two kick offs. I figured that Koenen must have been hurt, but I did not realize that he was out of the game in la-la land. Concussions seem to be a dime a dozen these days, but Koenen’s injury is significant for several reasons – he handles kick off and punts, and he does both very well.

The NFC South Blog shows that Matt Bryant was also injured in the game, which explains why Atlanta went for a few unusual fourth down attempts.

“Michael Koenen suffered a concussion making a tackle. Place kicker Matt Bryant suffered a hamstring injury.”

The Falcons have battled their share of injuries all season, but these two are distressing; when Atlanta visits Tampa Bay next weekend, the Falcons may need a game winning field goal to beat the suddenly hot Buccaneers.

SEC Predictions (Round 2 – Independence Bowl)

Georgia is favored by 7 over the mighty Aggies from Texas. Two things come to mind in this one. First, I don’t think it is ever safe to assume that Georgia will cover. It seems like Coach Richt’s teams always play down to the competition. Second, A&M is capable of putting up points, and the Bulldogs are using grad assistances to help coach up the defense. This does not seem like a recipe for success.

When you are playing in Shreveport, LA, you are either disappointed you have fallen so far in the Bowl rankings, which is the case with 7-5 Georgia, or you are just grateful that you were invited to a party, which pretty much sums it up for 6-6 Texas A&M. This game will come down to coaching. Forget the fact that Texas A&M has a poor defense; remember Georgia does not even have a defensive coordinator! The over/under on this one is 67, and I expect it to be a high scoring affair.

The keys to the game for Georgia:

Ball control – Keep A&M’s Jerrod Johnson from exposing the defense by keeping him on the bench as much as possible.
Eliminate turnovers – Georgia has experienced turnover issues all year.
Limit stupid penalties – The Bulldogs will get their fair share of flags; just hope to keep the silly ones in check.
A.J. Green – Green is a game breaker; get him the ball any way you can.

Just for grins, I am going to say that each team puts up 27, but Georgia wins by 10 … something along the lines of 43-31.

Regular Season Record: 46-41
SEC Championship: 0-1
SEC Bowl Record: 0-1
Final Record: 46-43
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SEC Bowl Record: 0-1 *Actual, not my predictions

Falcons defeat Bills 31-3. One win from making franchise history!

I just got back from a great Falcons victory. OK, forget the fact that the game was not actually great, but these days you take a win any way you can get one. Also ignore any arguments that the Bills have packed it in for the year. There are folks on that team that are playing for next year, either with Buffalo or elsewhere.

I told my boys on the way up to the game that if Brohm played, the Falcons would win 31-3, and win big they did. I wish I was a betting man, because today would have been easy money.

One of the few disadvantage of being at the game is that you do not actually know if someone is hurt, or why they are not playing. Right before the half Tony Gonzalez left the game limping; not sure what happened to him. And seeing Kroy Biermann kicking off was a complete trip; he actually did well … at least respectable.

So now we turn our attention to Tampa Bay and a possible 9-7 season, which would be so much better than 8-8.

Falcons host the Bills

When was the last time the Falcons were favored by 9 points? It is enough to make you think that the Falcons are a dominant team, not injury plagued, and headed to the playoffs. Of course all three assumptions are incorrect.

Ryan should play, but I expect that Turner will sit this one out. He just cannot seem to get that ankle healthy. The Falcons are getting so many points because the Bill’s QB situation is up in the air. Will the Falcons face the NFL debut of Brian Brohm?

For me a key to the Falcons success is always the ability to pound the ball on the ground, controlling the clock, setting up the play action pass for Ryan, and perhaps most importantly, keeping Atlanta’s poor defense off the field. One of the Falcons “official” blogs (J.Mike’s Missives) has this appalling stat:

“Atlanta allows a score in the red zone 79 percent of the time.”

Actually I am not sure how this compares to the rest of the NFL, but it certainly does not sound good. The Falcons defense came up pretty big last week against the Jets, and they will probably do the same if the Bills come in limping with Brohm behind center.

I am about to be off to a nuts cold tailgate, but it is the last one of the year, so I am sure we will enjoy throwing around the new footballs the boys got from Santa.

Go Falcons!

SEC Predictions (Bowls – Round 1)

The Wildcats of Kentucky are the first SEC team to make an appearance this Bowl season as they take on the Clemson Tigers in the Music City Bowl. Sheridan has Clemson favored by a full 6.5 points.

This is one of those hard to predict games. Clemson carries a two game winless streak, while Kentucky dropped their last game of the year. Clearly neither team has any momentum on their side. I also think the SEC is a much better conference than the ACC, but Kentucky is not an SEC stalwart, so it brings me no shame saying that Clemons wins, but will they cover?

This one will come down to how the coaches prepare their kids, how the coaching staff downplays the disappointment of hanging out in Nashville (instead of Florida); in short, which team can get up for this the Music City Bowl. Clemson’s recent track record is not so hot; they have lost their last three Bowl game appearances. On the other hand, Kentucky has won three in a row, including the 2006 (against Clemson) and 2007 Music City Bowls. In other words, this should be old hat for the Wildcats. I am going to take Kentucky in an upset.

Regular Season Record: 46-41
SEC Championship: 0-1
SEC Bowl Record: 0-0
Final Record: 46-42
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SEC Bowl Record: 0-0 *Actual, not my predictions