Tag: Atlanta Falcons

What do these three teams have in common? Atlanta lost to each of them in their first playoff game three out of the last four seasons.

In 2008, Atlanta and rookie Matt Ryan lost on the road to an Arizona team that went on lose a closely contested Super Bowl to Pittsburg. Two years later, Atlanta coughed up home field advantage in embarrassing fashion to Green Bay who later went on to defeat Pittsburg in Super Bowl XLV. This year the Falcons went on the road to NY and were manhandled by the Giants, who were just anointed Super Bowl XLVI Champions.

Not that it makes me feel any better, but at least the Falcons can say that in each of their playoff appearances in the Ryan / Coach Mike Smith era, they were beaten by Super Bowl quality teams.

The Falcons could learn a thing or two from the Giants’ approach on defense:

10. The Giants’ four-man pass-rush is exceptional: Give New York credit for having an organizational philosophy that says, “You can never have enough great pass-rushers.” From Tuck to Jason Pierre-Paul to Osi Umenyiora to Mathias Kiwanuka, the Giants just keep coming. Pierre-Paul is not only a great pass-rusher, but he’s one of the best in the league at deflecting passes at the line of scrimmage. He batted down two of Brady’s passes Sunday night. As a group, the Giants sacked Brady twice (both by Tuck), hit him eight times and forced him into throwing several errant, rushed passes.

Before the Falcons worry too much over a new open air stadium with a retractable roof, I suggest that the front office and coaching staff figure out how to put together a defensive line that can sniff at least a smidgen of a pass rush, and build an offensive line that can actually convert on fourth and one.

As I wrote when the hiring of OC Dirk Koetter was announced, he was not exactly an inspiring choice. The same cannot be said for new DC Mike Nolan. As a longtime Tom Landry and Dan Reeves fan, I think Mike Nolan is going to be a good fit.

Nolan faces three major problems, listed in no particular order.

• Key free agents – John Abraham, Curtis Lofton, Brent Grimes, Thomas DeCoud.
• Poor secondary play.
• Abysmal pass rush.

 

Normally you would build via the draft, but without a 1st round pick, the Falcons cannot look to rebuild the defensive line or shore up the secondary. The front office can look to build via free agency, but the Falcons cannot afford to overpay (see Dunta Robinson and Ray Edwards).

Should be interesting to see how this turns out, but we will not know the full picture until after the pre training camp salary cap casualties. Yes, the draft will carry a lot of weight as GM Thomas Dimitroff looks to add value picks, but expect the Falcons to plug in a few gaps via salary cap pick-ups.

The Future of Turner
Under the topic of lack of draft picks and salary cap casualties, look for Michael Turner. Speculation is growing that Turner could be shopped or even dropped. It is true that Turner is hitting the magical train wreck for HB known as being 30.

One key point in the Turner discussion that seems to be missing is that losing Ovie Mughelli impacted the Falcons ability (inability) to run effectively. Not to mention poor offensive line play.

The AJC’s Jeff Schultz points out that Turner has a significant cap hit that cannot be overlooked:

Turner is scheduled to make $5 million in salary next season, but has a cap hit of $7.5 million (factoring $2.5 million for his original signing bonus).

True enough and Schultz didn’t weigh in a strong opinion for keeping or moving (or dropping) Turner.

ESPN’s Pat Yasinskas points out that it is unlikely that ATL will get much return (in the way of draft pick compensation) for the aging Turner:

If they went this route, you’d like to see the Falcons get a nice draft pick in return. But, for all the reasons we covered above, I’d have a tough time seeing another team give up an early draft pick for an aging running back. At best, the Falcons might be able to get a middle- or late-round pick for Turner. That team also would have to pick up a contract that would pay Turner $5 million in 2012 and $5.5 million in 2013, so I’d say a late-round pick is a more likely scenario.

Simply cutting Turner isn’t totally out of the question. He’s scheduled to count $7 million against the 2012 salary cap. But I just checked the specifics of his contract. The Falcons would take a $4 million cap hit if they cut Turner. But they’d also free up $3 million in cap space.

I don’t think it is realistic to talk about moving Turner until there is some decision made on Jason Snelling (also a Free Agent). If the Falcons resign Snelling, I think that will point to a Turner move (one way or the other). Of course they resigned Snelling last year, so I could be totally off base.

I just don’t see the Falcons getting anything in return for Turner, and it would be disappointing if they just dropped him, but freeing up $3 million in cap space may allow the Falcons to push for more pressing needs.

Seriously. WTF were the Falcons thinking hiring Dirk Koetter (former OC for the Jacksonville Jaguars) for their vacant OC position?

The Jaguars have had some obvious personnel deficiencies. The organization was a mess and head coach Jack Del Rio clearly had lost his effectiveness. But it’s safe to conclude Koetter was not viewed as anybody’s “hot” candidate.

Two factors may have played into this hiring: 1) Smith wanted somebody he is comfortable with, and in this case that’s somebody he has worked with; 2) The Falcons’ third straight immediate playoff exit has, for the first time, put some heat on Smith, and that perceived uncertainty sometimes affects a team’s ability to hire a high-profile candidate.

Good Lord and good grief, I hope this turns out well, but at first glance, this hire is not exactly “I will renew my season ticket holder status” inspiring.

Please let me eat my words …

Sort of. I was not expecting DC BVG to be the first ATL coordinator out the door. That was kind of surprising. I always thought that VanGorder a good job of working with what was available. Mind you, I’m not saying BVG is irreplaceable; I think the Falcons should be able to make an improvement. Really depends on how respected Head Coach Mike Smith is among the coaching ranks … about to find out shortly. My guess is that the Falcons will come out better. Everyone likes a shot at stability and that has been the mantra of the Falcons under Smith.

In other news, there is a least one site making the case for Falcons OC Mike Mularkey. LMFAO.

The Giants totally, absolutely, and completely demoralized the Falcons on their way to a 24-2 rout. I have written about it multiple times this year – how can the Falcons not manage a f’ing yard on 3rd and 4th and short?

I don’t think this failure debate should center on Matt Ryan being a 0-3 failure in the playoffs. Of course that will be the hot topic, but really how can the focus not be on getting a new OC?

I can understand real life – Mike Mularkey probably has a family, bills to pay, and feelings. But Good Lord, there has to be some change. Let’s start there.

There are too many grievances to point out, but how about the simple fact that the Falcons were scared at the end of the first half, apparently happy to go in with a 7-2 deficit instead of attempting to get some more points on the board. In a low scoring game, how do you leave 20+ seconds on the table when you have a full slate of timeouts?

Next up – get an o-line that can actually manage a yard. Of course the Falcons went all in on Julio, so no first round pick to bail us out come April. Awful. Not a surprise since it has been the theme all year, but that still does not make it any easier to swallow.

As I write this Tebow just threw a nice 30 yard TD strike; WTF were our 30 yard passes? The “big” story this off season was big play ability, which was the reason for going after Julio. When Ryan did have time, I guess everyone was covered – credit the Giants. Still, why not try something; Harry D in the slot maybe?

I take little solace in being wrong on Matt Bosher. The Falcons won the putting game thanks to the ever improving Bosher who managed 322 total yards on 7 punts, good for a net avg. of 42 yards per punt. Nice; Falcons don’t totally suck.

What a bitter and disappointing way to end the season.

Hapless Bucs or not, yesterday’s 45-24 destruction of Tampa Bay was a record setting day for the Falcons, and earned ATL the #5 seed in the playoffs. Records broken:

42 first half points; most every in a half.

Ryan single season passing yards pushed Jeff Georgia out of the top spot.

Turner now holds the career rushing TD mark.

Roddy White (another game with a dropped pass) earned the all-time receiving yards record.

Next up, the Giants; NY is currently favored by 3 points (i.e. home field advantage). Depending on which ATL team shows up, the Falcons have a realistic chance of advancing. ATL could be one and done, but I still would rather play the inconsistent Giants than go back to New Orleans for the first game.

Go Falcons!

It will suck for me if I take the 90 minute trip to ATL only to find out that the Lions wrapped up the 5th spot, and the Falcons decide to treat this New Year’s Day game like a 3rd preseason game.

Of course we will enjoy the beautiful weather (60’s with plenty of sunshine), tailgate, delicious adult beverages, and all the general fun that goes into an afternoon of family tailgating.

Landing the 5th or 6th spot is probably equivalent to having to decide  [… pick your poison … I was going to make some reference to sisters and fat girls, but decided it wasn’t very funny …] It’s not going to matter if this ATL team has to travel to San Fran or New Orleans. And I doubt that they will make the NFC Championship game, so heading back to Detroit is probably not in the cards either.

Unless Green Bay plays their starters and gives the Falcons a shot at the 5th seed (we will know before our 4PM kickoff), I think ATL is going to rest everyone after the 1st QTR, which means Ryan better get to work quickly …

Erasing Jeff George: Like the Saints, the Falcons also are saying they’ll play their starters. Let’s hope that’s true and let’s hope Matt Ryan at least plays long enough to throw for 73 yards. If he does, he’ll set the franchise record for passing yards in a season. The record is 4,143 yards and it was set by Jeff George in 1995. No team should have George at the top of its record book for 16 years.

Jeff George. What an awful memory.

Go Falcons!

I’m sitting around on my bum today because the Falcons have a rare ‘off’ Sunday. Nice little ‘reward’ for getting my family safely back home from the Georgia Dome Friday morning, 2AM’ish. The Falcons absolutely demolished the Jaguars 41-14 on Thursday Night Football, NFL Network style.

Thankfully I have the Red Zone in HD for my ADD viewing pleasure. Never had crack, but I think going full throttle from game to game from kickoff to 7:30PM (or whenever the last afternoon game is over) is more or less addicting.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have another couple of days off, as they push forward to secure their grip on the #5 Wild Card seed.

Smith set off a minor celebration after the game when he told the players they don’t have to practice again until Tuesday.

“Four or five days off couldn’t come at a better time,’’ Ryan said.

The break might also allow the Falcons to get injured cornerbacks Brent Grimes (knee) and Kelvin Hayden (toe) back on the field. Having a fully healthy secondary could be crucial against the pass-happy Saints, who defeated the Falcons in overtime in their Nov. 13 meeting in Atlanta.

It’s doubtful that the Saints are going to go down two of three times against the Vikings, Falcons, and Panthers, so they pretty much have a lock on the NFC South.

With that said, I like the Falcons position; having to play the Giants or Cowboys is not very intimidating. I will go so far as to say the Falcons will actually get three points against either team.

Go Falcons!

Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey is not exactly creative, and let’s be realistic – 100% unimaginative. I have been critical of him and his play calling all year, so it was rather amusing to see that he could be made the scapegoat if ATL crashes and burns its way out of the playoffs.

3. Mike Mularkey, Falcons offensive coordinator. Atlanta came out very aggressively, throwing a couple of quick deep passes against Houston. That didn’t work. Didn’t the Falcons learn anything early in the year when they were trying to force things downfield? Their offensive line isn’t really good enough to block for the deep ball, unless Michael Turner and the running game have softened up a defense first. If the Falcons somehow don’t make the playoffs or have an early exit, there’s probably going to be a scapegoat because expectations were so high at the start of the season. Mularkey’s looking like the leader in the scapegoat clubhouse.

Of course if ATL didn’t drop so many passes things could be a little different. Having another win or two at this point in the season would have held off the scapegoat comments.

The Falcons have to change directions this offseason. I’m convinced that Mularkey’s system and play calling is holding back Ryan. While Ryan has success in the hurry up offense, he is constrained by what is in the playbook. i.e. WTF is the screen?

Next season the Falcons need to go all in with a Buffalo Bills Jim Kelly style hurry up offense. Of course the Falcons have to get past the next few weeks – at Carolina, Thursday night Dome date with Jacksonville, MNF at New Orleans, and a New Year’s Day Dome game hosting Tampa Bay.

The Falcons should win three out of four, which will be enough to get them in the playoffs, however if they play like they did last week against Houston, they are toast.

Not really, but I have always held the notion that if Turner gets 100, the Falcons win. What about the notion of if Matt Ryan has a good day, the Falcons win? I was surprised to see this tidbit on Ryan:

Ryan finished [Nov 20 win over Titans] with a 110.9 NFL passer rating. Since his arrival in 2008, the Falcons are 19-0 when Ryan’s passer rating is at least 100.

That is pretty damn impressive, and in my opinion, Ryan has been under the radar. With that said, Turner is the key to making the offense click. Yes, Ryan is good, and the Falcons could not expect to just plug in any QB and get the same results.

The reality is that the Falcons are at their heart, a ball control, power running team. When ATL controls the clock, and moves the ball effectively on the ground, it opens up the passing game for Ryan. In order for the Falcons to be successful, Ryan has to capitalize on the open space gifted by Turner, and apparently Ryan has done a good job of this over the last three years.

I do not have the statistics to back this up, but I wager a Miller Lite that the games where Ryan’s passer rating is 100+, Turner has also put up solid numbers.

I’m not down or Ryan or taking anything away from him. In fact, color me impressed that Ryan has put together a solid season so far in the face of a piss poor offensive coordinator, an unlevel o-line, and some injuries to key personnel.

While Turner may be the heart and soul of the Falcons, Ryan is the face of the franchise, and is backing it up on the field.

Color me impressed.

Just thought I would bring it up, since the Falcons front office just sent out notification for playoff tickets, which is really just a way to hoodwink season ticket holders. Is it really necessary to send out ‘invoices’ before Christmas? Before we even know if there is a home game in our future?

You have to pay if you want to reserve a seat, which at this point in the season is really a risky and expensive proposition.

The Falcons (6-4) are still on the outside of the playoff picture, chasing the Lions (7-3; Falcons own the head-to-head tie breaker) and Bears (7-3; Falcons screwed the pooch on the head-to-head tie breaker).

Right now the Falcons have a very manageable schedule:

REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Vikings (2-8), at Texans (7-3), at Panthers (2-8), vs. Jaguars (3-7), at Saints (7-3), vs. Buccaneers (4-6)

I think the Falcons beat the Vikings, Jaguars, and Bucs, all at home. They should beat the Panthers on the road. The Texans are a ‘swing’ game; tough road trip, but ATL should have a chance. I think the Saints win at home. What does it mean? The Falcons have a shot to be 11-5 or 10-6. Will 10-6 be enough to get in the playoffs?

Bears
The Bears are in trouble with Cutler out, but if they manage to split their last six games (two of which are against the Packers), they will be 10-6 and as mentioned above, own the tie breaker against the Falcons.

REMAINING OPPONENTS: at Raiders (6-4), vs. Chiefs (4-6), at Broncos (5-5), vs. Seahawks (4-6), at Packers (10-0), at Vikings (2-8)

So let’s call it a lapse against the Raiders, home wins against the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Vikings. I don’t see the Bears beating the Packers. Broncos are a huge swing game, but from a Falcons’ fan perspective, this schedule gets the Bears to at least 10-6, and maybe 11-5, which pretty much ruins ATL’s chances.

Lions
The Falcons have to be pulling for the Lions to go no better than .500 over their final six games, which includes the Saints (no way I can pull for the Saints), and the Packers twice.

REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Packers (10-0), at Saints (7-3), vs. Vikings (2-8), at Raiders (6-4), vs. Chargers (4-6), at Packers (10-0)

The Lions have an interesting schedule. The only ‘sure’ win has to be the Vikings. If the Chargers have any spunk (or pride, or AFC West aspirations) in them, they can be dangerous matching any team score-for-score; however it is a home game for the Lions.

I see the Lions going 10-6, unless they somehow pull off an upset over the Saints and split against the Packers. If ATL is in the Wild Card hunt, the Saints could be my new best friend, however if the Falcons have a shot at the NFC South title (ATL at New Orleans Dec 26 on Monday Night Football), I am all in on the Lions bandwagon, as long as they end with the same record as the Falcons!

Giants
Much like the Falcons, the Giants at 6-4 are on the outside looking in at the Wild Card front runners and current NFC East division leader Dallas.

REMAINING OPPONENTS: at Saints (7-3), vs. Packers (10-0), at Cowboys (6-4), vs. Redskins (3-7), at Jets (5-5), vs. Cowboys (6-4)

The Giants really can take charge of things by virtue of two games against the Cowboys. I do not expect the Giants to take down the Saints, but that would sure help the Falcons playoff hopes!

Cowboys
Speaking of the Cowboys (6-4), unless they mess up twice against the Giants, they should win the NFC East, avoiding any messy Wild Card scenarios.

REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Dolphins (3-7), at Cardinals (3-7), vs. Giants (6-4), at Buccaneers (4-6), vs. Eagles (4-6), at Giants (6-4)

Wins over the Dolphins, Cardinals, Bucs, Eagles, and a split with the Giants puts Dallas at 11-5. I suppose it is possible for a slip up or two (Eagles, taking two on the chin against the Giants), but we can come back and look at that possibility a few weeks from now.

Saints
The Saints (7-3) are sitting pretty in the cat bird seat.

REMAINING OPPONENTS: vs. Giants (6-4), vs. Lions (7-3), at Titans (5-5), at Vikings (2-8), vs. Falcons (6-4), vs. Panthers (2-8)

They have to like their chances to go at least 10-6, but more than likely they do a couple of games better and end up at 12-4, with a loss against the Falcons. I only pick the Falcons, not as a fan, but because it is a rivalry game, and ATL will be fighting for its playoff life, while the Saints may have complete control of the NFC South by Christmas.

What does it all mean?
The Falcons better go 11-5, winning the NFL South to make sure they get it, but for that to happen, the Saints have to slip up against two of three: Giants, Lions, Falcons. I don’t see the Falcons getting in on any tiebreakers against the Saints.

I was going to post this last night … and then earlier today, but just couldn’t get “into it” enough to push forward.

I don’t care what anyone says about the percentages; by golly, you have to be able to get a few lousy inches … just one f’ing yard … to keep the drive alive. Only this Falcons team could not capitalize, which means they absolutely deserved the loss.

A couple of quotes worth noting from the NFC South Blog:

What I didn’t like: When Mike Smith first decided to go for it on fourth-and-inches in overtime, I liked the call. I thought it was gutsy and ambitious. After watching Michael Turner get stuffed, I changed my mind. Smith should have punted and taken his chances with his defense.

The decision was fine; the play and execution by the o-line clearly sucked.

The Julio factor: Once rookie receiver Julio Jones left the game, it sure seemed like Atlanta’s offense became stagnant until late in regulation. That shouldn’t happen. Jones is a good player, but Atlanta has plenty of other talent at the skill positions and should be able to get by without him.

I agree, and I think it further points to some poor play calling. All of a sudden, the Falcons rediscovered Harry Douglas (8 receptions for 133 yards).

Yes, I hate the Saints …
I ran out of time to post this before the Saints game, but with the loss, it just furthers the point that I really, really, hate losing to those guys.

“If you’re just kind of walking around town, fans say, ‘If you do one thing this year, just beat Atlanta,’ “New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees said. “I think that’s probably the sentiment of fans that have been longtime Saints fans, I’m sure. Maybe longtime Falcons fans say the same thing to them about beating the Saints, I don’t know.”

Exactly. This is not a recent revelation; it just so happens that both teams are solid at the same time. Hating the Saints is a lifetime commitment. Put it this way, it was more painful for me to see the Saints win their first Super Bowl, then it was for me to watch the Falcons get throttled in their first attempt.

I still say fuck Eugene Robinson; seriously, how do you not keep your pants up on the night of the Super Bowl?

Too early for must win game talk? Not if you are the Falcons, sitting at 5-3, one game back of their bitter rivals, the Saints. Not if you have already lost the tie breaker to the 5-3 Bears. Not if you are already down 0-1 to the Bucs.

If the season ended today, the Falcons would be on the outside looking in. It’s time to roll, and hopefully the Falcons will get a much need emotional spark wearing their throwback Blacks, and remembering picture gate (Saints ‘celebrated’ on the Falcons logo last year).

The boys in Vegas favor ATL by a point, which means everyone recognizes this matchup will be hard fought, and closely contested, home field advantage be damned.

The Saints and their “who da” chanters travel well and always make their presence felt in the Dome. God, how I detest that chant. Hate. Loathe. Seriously. I hope the good guys shut down Brees and company early and often, but somehow I picture this one turning into a 37-34 type of game, instead of a 24-23 slugfest.

Either way, it appears that the Falcons are playing much better defense, and their offense is clicking. If Turner can run, the Falcons will win. Simple, proven, and effective gameplan. And of course the defense has to hammer Brees every other play.

Go Falcons!

This one changes everything. The Falcons pulled out a well played 23-16 victory in Detroit over the Lions. Now 4-3, the Falcons go into their Bye week, with plenty of opportunity to get healthy, and to look forward to the next part of their schedule, which features some winnable games. Colts on the road; followed three consecutive ‘Defend the Dome’ games – huge rivalry game against the Saints, then the Titans, and Vikings on Thanksgiving weekend.

The Detroit game was almost a disaster, as I thought for sure that Ryan had broken his ankle. Luckily, he was able to come back, and despite 2 INTs, lead ATL to victory behind a strong 100+ yards rushing for Turner.

Except for the penalties, the Defense finally played a top flight game, and hopefully the Bye week will give them further time to improve, and continue to recapture some of the lost magic from last year.

Just keeping my fingers crossed that Mughelli did not suffer a career ending knee injury. It looked pretty bad.

4-3 feels so much better than 3-4. Same for a win going into a Bye week. Go Falcons!