Consoles – Predicting the Future

I have not had time to sink my teeth into all the new console announcements, but I find it interesting that predictions are rolling out the door:

“In 2004, Sony’s older PlayStation 2 led the U.S. console wars with 43 percent of the market, according to Jupiter Research. The original Xbox was a distant No. 2 with 19 percent, followed by Nintendo’s GameCube at 14 percent. The remainder included handheld game systems.

But by 2010, Xbox 360 would grab the lead with 38 percent of the market, followed by Sony with 32 percent and Nintendo with 22 percent, Jupiter forecasts.”

I am not sure how Jupiter Research came to this conclusion, but it is interesting to see a prediction that Sony will lose 11% percent of the market, Microsoft will gain 19% of the market, and somehow Nintendo will even gain another 8% market share.

Microsoft certainly has a chance to gain market share with their new system, but I wonder how companies such as Jupiter Research make these sort of forecasts, and more importantly to us gamers, how often are these predictions on the mark?


3 thoughts on “Consoles – Predicting the Future”

  1. I heard Goldman Sachs predicted X360 would move 3 miillion units by the end of this year. So depending on when it launches, we could be talking anywhere from 6-10 weeks of sales.

    That sounds faster than even the PS2, when people couldn’t get them fast enough and people were paying several times retail price on eBay.

    There’s a Wired piece in which J. Allard talks about being the first to 10 million to win the market share wars. MS is certainly talking not only about gaining ground but overtaking Sony.

    I think most people would say Sony will have a hard time replicating the huge market share lead in consoles against two deep-pocketed competitors. But to lose the market share lead within one generation?

  2. wco81 – 3 million would be impressive for two reasons. First, it means that Microsoft can build a whole lot of systems. Second, it means that Microsoft was able to deliver at the magical $299 price point.

    I am in the camp that cannot imagine Sony becoming #2 in a single generation, but what the heck do I know. Maybe Micrsoft delivers some great games, and plenty of hype – type type of hype that Sony manages for their systems.

  3. Well remember, the Jupiter forecast is only for the US and includes handheld systems.

    MS is going to be a distant third in Japan no matter what. Not sure about Europe.

    And yeah, right now it’s Sony’s game to lose the market in the US too.

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