A recent Blu-ray/HD DVD post at The Blog for Sports Gamer reminded me that I had something waiting to be posted along the same lines. I ran out of time Sunday (and yesterday I was more or less out of it), but since I am at home, and not really in a position to do much besides lounge around, I decided to get this puppy posted.
TVPerdictions.com had an interesting story on the same topic, where the author contends that a stalemate is looming, and can only be prevented by a massive PS3 push (and associated price drop):
“I do not believe that any of the planned efforts by the Blu-ray or HD DVD camps will bring about the increase in adoption required to settle the format war. A massive reduction in the price of the PS3 is probably the best opportunity for a resolution, but this is a guess.”
I do not see a massive reduction for the PS3. I also remember that a lot of pundits thought that iTunes would never have mass market acceptance. It took me a while to jump on the electronic media bandwagon because there was just something tangible about holding a CD. From a movie standpoint, I do not see how electronic media will be popular until there are huge storage devices (a 60GB PS3 HDD will not store my current DVD library).
I am not sure where this leaves us, but if Blu-ray is currently winning the format war, it is only winning a minor skirmish. From what I have read, Blu-ray and HD DVD movie sales are an extremely small percentage of overall DVD sales. If the recent price drops (sub $200) of HD DVD players do not increase HD DVD adoption, then you have to consider HD DVD a failed format. Same goes for Blu-ray. If the PS3 does not pick up a lot of steam, and push Blu-ray in the same way the PS2 pushed DVD, then Blu-ray will suffer the same fate of other failed media formats.