{"id":799,"date":"2007-02-07T22:02:16","date_gmt":"2007-02-08T02:02:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/2007\/02\/07\/chasing-aaron\/"},"modified":"2007-02-07T22:03:33","modified_gmt":"2007-02-08T02:03:33","slug":"chasing-aaron","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/2007\/02\/07\/chasing-aaron\/","title":{"rendered":"Chasing Aaron"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I love The Hardball Times (need to talk about the THT 2007 Baseball Annual sometime soon).  The recently ran a great <a href=\"http:\/\/www.hardballtimes.com\/main\/article\/will-bonds-break-hammerin-hanks-record\/\" onclick=\"__gaTracker('send', 'event', 'outbound-article', 'http:\/\/www.hardballtimes.com\/main\/article\/will-bonds-break-hammerin-hanks-record\/', 'article');\" target=\"new\">article<\/a> on Bonds and his quest to break the HR record.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cAssuming Bonds sees a 20% attrition in plate appearances, that gives him about 410 opportunities, which means he needs a HR\/PA rate of 5.4% to sneak over the Hammer Line, which is marginally above his 2006 pace of 5.3%. If he were to repeat his 2006 long ball rate he\u2019d only need an extra six plate appearances (416) to beat the record. If he were to attain 450 plate appearances, then his home run rate only needs to be 4.9%, which is above what all the projections estimate. One thing is clear: The margin for error in our aging analysis is thin!\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I think it is unfortunate that we are going to have to talk about drugs all summer, but it will be interesting drama.  I am a Braves fan, so I am biased, but I do not want to see Bonds break Aaron\u2019s record.  Bonds was a great player long before he started (allegedly) taking the juice, so it is regrettable that Bonds saw fit to tarnish his legacy.<\/p>\n<div class=\"addtoany_share_save_container addtoany_content_bottom\"><div class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_ addtoany_list a2a_target\" id=\"wpa2a_1\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.addtoany.com\/share\" onclick=\"__gaTracker('send', 'event', 'outbound-article', 'https:\/\/www.addtoany.com\/share', '');\" class=\"a2a_dd addtoany_share_save\"><img src=\"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-content\/plugins\/add-to-any\/share_save_171_16.png\" width=\"171\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Share\"\/><\/a>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\nif(wpa2a)wpa2a.script_load();\n\/\/--><\/script>\n<\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I love The Hardball Times (need to talk about the THT 2007 Baseball Annual sometime soon). The recently ran a great article on Bonds and his quest to break the HR record. \u201cAssuming Bonds sees a 20% attrition in plate appearances, that gives him about 410 opportunities, which means he needs a HR\/PA rate of &hellip; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/2007\/02\/07\/chasing-aaron\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Chasing Aaron<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"addtoany_share_save_container addtoany_content_bottom\"><div class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_ addtoany_list a2a_target\" id=\"wpa2a_2\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.addtoany.com\/share\" onclick=\"__gaTracker('send', 'event', 'outbound-article', 'https:\/\/www.addtoany.com\/share', '');\" class=\"a2a_dd addtoany_share_save\"><img src=\"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-content\/plugins\/add-to-any\/share_save_171_16.png\" width=\"171\" height=\"16\" alt=\"Share\"\/><\/a><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-799","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-archive"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=799"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=799"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=799"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.calvertgames.com\/cgblog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=799"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}